We continue to have a strong real estate market in the Puget Sound region despite the massive job loss and all of the craziness that the year 2020 has thrown at us. Seattle is #2 in the nation behind Phoenix for fastest growing home prices. The median price of single family homes in King County from June 2020 was up +4.2% from June 2019 with a median price of $729,000. Snohomish County saw an increase of +5.9%  to a median price of $539,975. Lake Forest Park (my neighborhood) saw an increase of +5.2% to a median price of $657,500. June is typically the high point each year for the number of homes for sale but with everything going on there has been an steep decline in the number of active listings. King County was down -38.4% from 7,135 to 4,396 homes/condos for sale. Snohomish County was down -45% and LFP was down -64.5%. Mortgage Interest rates continue to set new record lows almost every week; Freddie Mac All Time Record Low: 3.13% with .8 in lender fees and points. Buyers are seeing a tremendous amount of savings with lower interest rates, I’m old enough to remember when rates were around 5% just last summer…and I’ve heard the nightmare stories of interests rates over 18% in 1981. 

I’ve been super busy with 3 properties under contract in Edmonds, Mill Creek, and Lynnwood and we just listed the first home I ever bought. It was built in 1937 and we did some nice updates to bring it up to date. Ashton (my amazing wife) gets all of the credit for picking out the new materials and colors. It's in Shoreline but right on the edge of Lake Forest Park, near great schools and easy commutes to downtown or the Eastside. Check it out here! We’re reviewing offers on Friday at Noon so fingers crossed that we get a solid offer or two :) 

When I’m not selling homes I’m most likely changing diapers. Last Friday we welcomed our healthy little guy, Felix Augusto, into the world. Ashton is doing great and Ana (14 months) is being very sweet to her little brother, even if she’s not exactly sure what it all means. 
 

So, as always, there’s never a dull moment at the McCartney household. Let me know if there is anything I can help with. Thanks for reading, I hope you enjoyed it and gain some value from these e-mails. Feedback is always welcome. I appreciate your support and hope you have a great week!  

Since 2012, the month of May has marked the high point in new single family homes coming on the market. Well this year looks a bit different since we’re all living the quarantine lifestyle, as May 2020 new listings were down 34.2% compared to May 2019. The low inventory has only had a moderate effect on price as King County has dipped 3.4% in King County and increased 2% compared to May 2019. The intense speed of the market is what has really caught my eye. Snohomish County homes were only on the market for five days before accepting and offer while King County was six days, which were both record breakers. Let that sink in, during COVID while we are all quarantined without the ability to attend open houses, we had the fastest real estate market EVER! 

For buyers – Don’t blink because you might see your dream home come on the market and get snatched up before you can make plans to see it. 

For sellers – The summer months will remain hot with all of the pent-up demand from buyers and low-interest rates. Don’t feel like you missed the typically prime selling months if you plan on selling later this year. 

We are going to take advantage of the fast paced market by selling our house in Shoreline that we have been remodeling for what feels like years. We are working hard to get it ready because we have the very important deadline; Ashton is due to deliver our baby boy on July 12th! I’ll post more photos of the house once we get it listed and if you’ve been reading my emails over the years you already know I’ll post baby photos. 
 

(Here is quick before and after of the back of the house - still a work in progress!)
 

Thanks for reading, I hope you enjoyed it and gain some value from these e-mails. Feedback is always welcome. I appreciate your support and hope you have a great week!  

I want to wish you a very Merry Christmas and hope that you are getting ready to have the best year ever in 2022! We dusted off the Michael Bublé Christmas album, have the house fully decorated, and took the kids to Stoker Farms to pick out the perfect tree. 
 

(Felix 1.5 years old and Ana 2.5 years old - now picking out her own outfits ha!)

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Check out our new website www.lyoncreek.com. You can set up your own home search, create custom market reports, and you can get a free home valuation here!
 

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Real Estate News

It’s December! Wow, this year absolutely flew by. In my head, I still feel like its March 2020 and I’m not sure how long it will take me to get over that. However, the real estate market is not stuck in 2020 and I am bracing myself for a very fast paced Q1 and Q2 of 2022. The Federal Reserve is expected to start raising rates in Q4 (more on that later) and Fannie Mae predicts the national median home price to increase 11.5% for single-family homes in 2022 and a more normalized 3.7% increase in 2023. In the Puget Sound Region, we tend to outpace the national averages in just about every housing category, normal to us looks like a 9% price increase due to our local economy and limited supply. Nationally, the total number of homes for sale was down -12% from total number of listings last year. Down 12% is pretty decent if you compare that to King County’s total number of single-family homes which is down 60.7% from last year, Snohomish County (-42%), and my neighborhood in Lake Forest Park (-58.8%). With our crazy low inventory, we are building up a backlog of capable buyers. When more homes come on the market after the holiday season, it’s going to be very competitive.

• November Median Sales Price
  • King County: $820,000 (+11.6% from November 2020)
  • Snohomish County: $683,000 (+18.8%)
  • Lake Forest Park/Kenmore/NE Shoreline: $824,500 (+11.6%)
• November Total Number of Homes for Sale
  • King County: 694 (-60.7%)
  • Snohomish County: 282 ( -42%)
  • Lake Forest Park/Kenmore/NE Shoreline: 14 (-58.8%)

Why is Fannie Mae predicting the housing market to slow towards the end of 2022? Well, it has to do with the old invisible tax we call, inflation. Now inflation isn’t always a bad thing and real estate has been a tool to hedge against inflation. As a home price rises over time, it lowers the loan-to-value of any mortgage debt, acting as a natural discount. As a result, the equity on the property increases, but your fixed-rate mortgage payments remain the same. I asked my go-to Senior Loan Officer, PJ Mooney at CrossCountry Mortgage, to write up how the current inflation situation will impact the mortgage rates.

PJ’s Power Play – Inflation and the Federal Reserve

We all know the ongoing COVID story, in Spring 2020 the country entered its worst recession in history, but it was also the shortest-by far. Thanks to government stimulus to the tune of nearly $6 trillion and most American’s sitting at home, the demand for goods skyrocketed. Labor shortages and lockdowns put a hold on supply chains and prices started to rise, leading to the highest inflation rate in 30 years.  

Inflation, when left unchecked, can escalate quickly. In a bid to stop the spiraling inflation of the 1970’s, The Fed cranked up interest rates to slow down the economy, an action that inevitably resulted in a punishing recession. The 1970’s inflation was a result from a disrupted energy market (an OPEC oil embargo and conflicts in the Middle East) that led to the longest stretch of inflation in US history.

While each inflationary period has its own unique characteristics, White House economists point to the current pent-up consumer demand and supply chain disruptions, and not 1970s-style inflation. The Fed is therefore expected to begin hiking its target rate in 25-basis-point increments beginning in Q4 2022. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate should see an increase from 3% to 3.5% by the end of 2023.

To contact PJ about getting pre-approved or refinancing a current loan the give him a shout at (425) 364-4642 or pj.mooney@myccmortgage.com.

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We know that the foundation of a new real estate brokerage is set on referrals from clients, friends, and family. If you know of anyone that may need help buying or selling property then please let us know. Any referral would be a huge help for the launch of Lyon Creek Real Estate! Thank you for reading and Merry Christmas! 

We are feeling the big squeeze on inventory. Unprecedented low-inventory levels in the housing market in the Puget Sound region have home prices trending slightly up during the time of year where we expect housing prices to drop. King County was up 1% in median price from September to October, Snohomish County was up 2%, and Lake Forest Park/Kenmore was up 6.8%. Not huge gains but when we expect the prices to be trending down, it's worth looking into. So let's check the data for the total number of homes for sale in October 2021 compared to the pervious three years, it tells a good story of where we are and what's to come. 

 

Number of Homes For Sale - Data from NWMLS

Area	October 2018	October 2019	October 2020	October 2021
King County	7,481	5,897	4,907	2,571
Snohomish County	2,879	2,328	1,294	805
Lake Forest Park	129	96	59	39

 

King County saw a -47.6% decrease in the number of homes listed from October 2020 to October 2021, Snohomish County is down -38%, and Lake Forest Park is down -34%. With these extremely low inventory numbers, I expect the housing market to be a frenzy in early 2022. Buyers typically start looking in mid-January and when they see that the cupboards are bare, the price will go up for the few homes on the market.  
 

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The McCartney family dressed as KISS for Halloween - We told Ana she was just a normal house cat, she was crawling around in her KISS costume pretending to be a kitty, haha! We hope you had a fun and safe Halloween!

 

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Other Real Estate News

Despite the inventory squeeze, we helped some clients close on this 1956 mid-century home in Kenmore that sits on a half-acre lot with views of Lake Washington. Sold for $1,125,000. We’re looking forward to seeing how our clients put their touch on their new home!

The fall of “ibuying” – Zillow made the announcement that they are no longer going to be buying homes with their online ibuyers program called Zillow Offers. Instant buying, otherwise known as "ibuying," refers to the process in which deep-pocketed, tech-enabled companies buy up homes, complete light renovations and then sell them for a profit. Companies like Zillow and Redfin rely on algorithms to value homes before purchasing them. Apparently, the algorithms were way off. Take the Phoenix area, for example, Zillow has listed 93% of their properties for LESS than what they paid for them. Zillow Offers lost $381 million last quarter and now the company plans to cut 25% of its workforce, while still needing to sell 7,000 homes throughout the US. How will this affect the market? ibuying programs make up about 1% off all home sales so it won’t shake the market too much, but it will be interesting to see how Redfin responds with their ibuying program.

The appeal to using ibuying programs to sell a house is that these companies were paying close to market value and the homeowner did not have to get the house fixed up for the open market. At Lyon Creek Real Estate, we work with other investors that are willing to purchase homes off market in their “as-in condition”. If that’s something you’re interested in, then let me know!

Also, don't forget to turn back your clocks - Daylight Saving Time is ending at 2:00 a.m. on Sunday, November 7th.

 

We know that the foundation of a new real estate brokerage is set on referrals from clients, friends, and family. If you know of anyone that may need help buying or selling property then please let us know. Any referral would be a huge help for the launch of Lyon Creek Real Estate!
 

In my May market recap, I made bold prediction that “Mariners prospect, Jarred Kelenic, will win the hearts of the Northwest and lead the M's to a playoff berth in 2021 to end the 20 year playoff drought!”. Well, well, well, the Mariners are currently tied for the final playoff spot with Boston with 3 games left to play thanks to Kelenic's heroics in September. Let’s hope that Manager Scott Service and the boys can end the 20 year drought! I do wish there was a better slogan being thrown around than "Believe", who could forget the "Refuse to Lose" slogan from the amazing 1995 season. But we're all in and the McCartney's BELIEVE!

The Seattle housing market is in its typical Fall cycle. In September, the median sales price for single family homes dropped 3% in King County, 3.6% in Snohomish County, and 5.5% in my neighborhood of Lake Forest Park. For the year, King County is up 7.4% while Snohomish County and LFP are up 19.2% and 7.9%, respectively. Four out of the last six years we saw a slight bump in new listings for King County homes in September. This September we saw a .06% increase in new listings so we are right on track. We can expect a large decline in the number of new listings in October, as it has happened every single year for the last decade and then expect a slow decline in median price until January, then hold on to your hats.

After a few months and hundreds of showings we found some great buyers for our Greenlake townhouse listing. We saw this little neighborhood explode with 8 other competitive listings the week that we listed the townhouse . Our townhouse was the largest and built with higher grade finishes but it was only 2-bedrooms so we just had to BELIEVE in ourselves to get the job done. When we listed it on June 10^th, the Mariners were 2-games under .500 and they did some big time BELIEVING and now they sit 19-games over .500 with the playoffs in sight! Hard work and the power of positive thinking!

We are getting ready for a very busy Fall season and we are heading to Craven Farm's Pumpkin Patch this afternoon. If you're planning on heading to any of the great pumpkin patches then go in early October before they become mud pits and the pumpkins get too picked over. 

 

       

Thanks for reading, I hope you enjoyed it and gain some value from these e-mails. Feedback is always welcome. I appreciate your support and hope you have a great weekend!  

The median price of single-family homes experienced a small dip as we moved from July to August. King County was down -2%, Snohomish County was down -2.14%, and my hometown of Lake Forest Park (LFP) was down -2.2%. This has the look of the seasonal cycle and I anticipate prices to drop slowly throughout the winter before the market takes flight again in 2022. As prices slowly fall, it’s important to remember the big picture, King County prices are up 14.3% year-over-year, Snohomish County is up 22.9%, and LFP is up 18.5%.

Inventory peaked in July with a combined total of 2,780 homes for sale in King and Snohomish Counties. In August, the number of homes for sale dropped -22.5% in King County, -13.9% in Snohomish County, and -18% in LFP. With inventory dropping, shouldn’t that increase competition and increase price?!

A popular phrase being thrown around the industry is “buyer fatigue”. The first half of 2021 was pretty insane – it was almost impossible to get an offer accepted. I remember one house, we made an offer on and ended up competing with 34 other offers... and the final price was way over the appraised value. That kind of market was soul crushing for faint of heart. As you could imagine, many buyers were burnt out on the bidding wars or simply priced out of the market. As prices flatten out this fall and winter, I expect those fatigued buyers to jump back the buyers pool and they may even find a deal or two.

Not every home is falling in price. We saw the average sales price go 5% over the listing price in August. If home is presented well and priced correctly then it will still attract multiple offers, even in the off season.

Free advice time: If you’re selling this fall, take the extra time to get your home in the best shape possible. Painting and landscaping are often the most cost-effective investments prior to listing. If you’re buying, look for a home that has been on the market for 8+ days and buy the dip. This will give you some buying power and we can start the negotiations. If you’re making an offer for a property that is less than 8 days on market then grab yourself a pumpkin-spiced-latte and be prepared to escalate your offer with very few, if any, contingencies.

We found some great buyers for my Greenlake townhouse listing. It's under contract for a excellent price and my sellers are happy to put their focus on wedding planning!
 

       

Thanks for reading, I hope you enjoyed it and gain some value from these e-mails. Feedback is always welcome. I appreciate your support and hope you have a great week!  

Seattle is experiencing one of the longest droughts in history, and no, I’m not referencing the Mariners 19-year playoff drought. I’m talking rain! We haven’t had a measurable amount of rain in 49 days, dating all the way back to June 14^th.  The consecutive rainless day records are 51 days in 1955 and 55 days in 2017. However, we are expecting rain this Friday, so unlike the Mariners, the drought may end soon.

Last week was an exciting one, we went pending on the offer review date for my Clyde Hill listing and my Shoreline listing. Between the four open houses on the weekend and hundreds of private showings, we found the perfect buyers for both properties.

Those two listings aside, the housing market is taking a bit of a deep breath, which is expected as part of the seasonal cycle. During the summer, we always reach our highest number of listings for the year which gives buyers a few more options and a little more time to make purchasing decisions. In July, in King County, the total number of properties for sale rose 8% from June to 3,422 (which is still EXTEREMLY low!) and the number of pending sales dropped 10% from June to July. The decrease in pending sales indicates that buyer demand is softening. Maybe the fact that 80% of Seattle homes don’t have air conditioning in the middle of a heat wave had something to do with it? 

While the number of pending sales dropped, King County saw a modest median price increase at 1.8%, Snohomish County increased 2.3%, and my neighborhood in Lake Forest Park saw a decrease of 6.7%. The price regression in Lake Forest Park was expected so I’m not sounding any alarms. In LFP, we set all-time highs in June for median price at $895k, which beat the previous all-time high by $100k that was set March 2021 at $795k. June 2021 was one for the record books! 

Overall, the market should be in fine shape as we start to wind down summer. Inventory will bottom out this winter again and we’ll see another very active market to start 2022. If you’re looking to buy now before it picks up speed then I have a great townhouse close to Green Lake that is move in ready, priced at $654,950. 
 

       

Thanks for reading, I hope you enjoyed it and gain some value from these e-mails. Feedback is always welcome. I appreciate your support and hope you have a great week!  

JUST LISTED! This 2-bedroom, 1 bath cottage has all the charm that you'd expect from a Shoreline home built in 1930. This grounds are beautiful and every inch of the property is inspires the indoor/outdoor lifestyle. Priced at $669,999.  Right up the hill from the Town Center at LFP. Open house on Saturday 7/24 from 2-4 PM
 

    

If you missed my e-mail earlier this week then check out the VIDEO of my new listing in Bellevue. This beautiful modern farmhouse was built in 2018 and has 5 bedrooms, 4 baths, open concept main floor, a theater room, rec room, exercise room, and a bonus room to fill out the 5,327 sq ft. Listed at $3,699,950. Open this weekend, Saturday and Sunday from 1-4 pm. 
 

  

If you’re not looking in the luxury market then I have a great townhouse close to Green Lake that is move in ready, priced at $654,950. 
 

       

Thanks for reading, I hope you enjoyed it and gain some value from these e-mails. Feedback is always welcome. I appreciate your support and hope you have a great week!